#KERvDEL Preview + Prediction: reinvigorated Kerala face an uphill task against dominat Delhi
THE LAST FEW WEEKS of the ISL 2016 league stage saw Kerala Blasters pull off a campaign recovery that few would have seen coming. Down at the dump at one point and barely keeping above FC Goa at the bottom of the table, the 2014 finalists managed to gather 13 points from their last 6 games to re-claim their place in the playoffs.
When the dust had settled, the points table had a surprising top half; Kerala Blasters, who fought NorthEast United for a place in the playoffs in their last league game, had actually gone above the dominant, flair-filled Delhi Dynamos who were battling Mumbai City for the pole position.
But all that is done, and in the past. These are the semi-finals, and it comes down to an elaborate double leg face off between the Blasters and the Dynamos. And though Kerala were a point above Delhi in the league stage, the more relevant stats here are the head-to-head stats, where Delhi Dynamos have an unmistakable upper hand.
The first encounter between these two teams in IS 2016, held on 9th October in the early days of the tournament, was a goalless draw. The second leg clash, held on 4th November in Delhi, was a 2-0 win for the home team. This stat implies an advantage for the impressive Dynamos, and goes hand in hand with the fact that other than a mid-October 1-0 win over a Mumbai City that was yet to find its footing, KBFC have not won a single match against any of their fellow semi-finalists. They are yet to prove themselves against the teams of calibre in ISL 2016.
But the Blasters faithful will have a counter-stat ready to bolster them ahead of tonight's crucial encounter at Kochi. They will say that the KBFC team the Dynamos faced in the league stage was an early version of the squad, when Indian internationals CK Vineeth and Rino Anto were still playing at AFC Cup with Bengaluru FC and Michael Chopra was still blundering around up front. They will say that the Kerala attack has now transformed into something very different, and Delhi haven't faced anything like this beofore.
Indeed, the rise of the Belfort-Vineeth combination, supported by Rafi and Nazon, has seen the KBFC frontline go through a radical transformation. Vineeth, particularly, is on a destructive spell; he has scored 5 goals in 6 appearances so far. And recent form is a stat that KBFC will draw much hope from; they showed heart and fought their way into the playoffs while Delhi Dynamos were falling asleep on the wheels. In the last one month, Delhi Dynamos have played 5 games, one only 1 game, and suffered defeats to Pune City and NorthEast United. So momentum is certainly on KBFC's side here, and they will be further bolstered by the fact that the ISL grand finale will be held in their own home ground.
But what about Delhi, though? If KBFC have a Vineeth, Delhi can raise them with Marcelinho who is the leading ISL 2016 goalscorer with 9 goals from 13 games. And they will still have a number of proven goalscorers to go around. Richard Gadze, Kean Lewis and Florent Malouda have been fairly influential in the team as well.
DDFC boast of the best goal difference in the league stage. They have scored 27 goals and conceded only 17. They are by far the most explosive team in ISL this season and have a competent defence consisting of Ruben, Chinglensana Singh, Lalchhawnkima and Anas Edathodika to safeguard their rear. Other than Mumbai City, they are the only ISL team with considerable bench strength. And their slow-down towards the end of the regular season can be interpreted as them taking things lightly and saving themselves for the playoffs.
That coach Zambrotta has had a calculative approach to the tournament was obvious in Delhi's last game against table toppers Mumbai City. The goalless draw saw a restrained game from DDFC, no excessive show of force and a no-risk selective engagement to avoid injuries.
If Delhi have been excercising caution, it's all been for this; the semi-finals. So tonight, expect the Lions to come out roaring. A display of strength in the away leg allows them a major advantage going into the return fixture, and they will not want to leave here with anything less than a win. The lynchpins of Kerala defence - Jhingan, Hengbart and Hughes - are going to have a tough day at office, and they will need some reinforcements from midfielders like Mahamat and Mehtab Hossain. Things may turn a bit ugly if there are early goals like the ATK vs Mumbai game last night. The fact that previous yellow cards are stricken off before the playoffs will be a relief for KBFC.
So what will be the result? Football isn't a game easy to predict but at TFG we do dabble in a bit of that. And based on how things stand now, it's hard to see how KBFC will manage to hold DDFC off. Last time these two teams met, Kerala tried their staple gameplay of holding off the opposition, controlling the pace of the game and try to get them on the counter; but what may work against NEUFC may not be the best idea against DDFC. Delhi are likely to win tonight's game by 1 or maybe 2 goals. And with ATK pulling off an upset win against Mumbai last night, a win tonight will establish the Dynamos as the undisputed front-runners for the title. If Kerala want to stop them, they will have to surprise them with offense, like ATK did to MCFC. But the question that remains is whether they can be as effective if Vineeth is heavily marked and the wings patrolled.
