The Relegation Rat Race: Aizawl, Mumbai and Lajong engaged in a ruthless battle for survival

THE I-LEAGUE TITLE RACE seems to be all but over after Bengaluru FC delivered a near knock-out punch to East Bengal. But the suspense factor raging around the season isn't going to die down any time soon. Because the battle to avoid relegation is still raging, and quite a few clubs are still struggling to break out of its grasp.

Yesterday, when Aizawl FC took on Salgaocar at home, it was one of the two big survival fights taking place in these final weeks of the season. Both clubs were on 13 points and the winner would obtain an almost certain immunity from the dreaded downfall. Salgaocar came out on top in the contest thanks to Duffy's memorable set-piece, and as a result they are now completely safe from relegation. They're on 16 points from 14 matches, and Aizawl are on 13 points from 15 games. This ensures that even if Aizawl win their last match, they will finish on 16 points, and remain below Salgaocar in the final standings due to being behind them in head-to-head. 

Yes, it's the newly promoted Aizawl FC that are under the biggest threat of relegation. Because they have just one game left, that too away from home against DSK Shivajians. And the Shivajians have not lost a game since mid-February and have beaten East Bengal and held Mohun Bagan as well as Bengaluru FC to some fiesty draws. Going to their den and coming out of something is a tough ask. 

But if they do pull off a win, they will have a slight advantage over their relegation rival Mumbai FC, thanks to being ahead of them in head-to-head.

Mumbai FC, who are at the bottom of the table with 13 points from 14 matches, are also particularly in danger. They are playing their last 2 games against Shillong Lajong and -who else- DSK Shivajians and have to pick up some points if they are to survive in the top flight. 

Meanwhile, Shillong Lajong are also not entirely out of the threat of relegation but they are a bit on the safer side. For starters, they are on 15 points from 14 matches, and leave Aizawl FC behind in head-to-head. The club has also looked good in recent games, beating Aizawl and holding Mohun Bagan at home, although on the road they suffered a defeat to Sporting Clube de Goa on Sunday. But they can't rest easy yet; because their last 2 matches are against Mumbai FC away and East Bengal at home. If they somehow lose to Mumbai FC, and Aizawl beat Shivajians, then on the last day of the season they will be fighting for their lives against East Bengal. And there's no guarantee that the point they need to survive will come their way when playing East Bengal who are one of the better teams in the league.

Which makes Sunday's encounter between Mumbai FC and Shillong Lajong utterly crucial. It's the second of the two big relegation contests of this month. Both Mumbai and Lajong will have a lot at stake, and they will go all out for full points. And this game will have immense bearing in deciding who will ultimately have to take the fall.

If Mumbai FC beat Shillong Lajong, they will become almost safe. Almost. Because if Aizawl beat Shivajians, Lajong beat East Bengal on the last day, and Mumbai lose to Shivajians, both Mumbai and Aizawl will be at the bottom with 16 points. And Aizawl will survive on head-to-head. Mumbai FC will go down.

If Lajong beat Mumbai, they are safe. Period. Being on 18 points puts them beyond the reach of Mumbai and Aizawl, irrespective of whatever happens in the match against East Bengal.

If it's a draw, then again Shillong Lajong attain immunity. Because they go up to 16, which is the highest Aizawl can go, and they survive by head-to-head. Mumbai FC, on 14 thanks to the draw, will face a simple task on the final day of the season, provided Aizawl beat Shivajians. They will have to win on 24th April to be safe. Anything less than that and they're going bottom.

But the most interesting scenario happens if Aizawl beat Shivajians, Mumbai beat Lajong and lose to Shivajians, and then Lajong draw with East Bengal. In that case, all the 3 clubs in question finish on 16 points, bringing a new metric into play; a mini-league that takes all the matches played between these 3 clubs into consideration. 

And just as luck would have it, all these clubs would be on 5 points each in this metric. They have all won 1 match, drawn 2 and lost 1 against each other. That will bring it all down to the goals difference. Here, Aizawl have played all their matches and scored 5 goals, and conceded 5. Lajong are a bit ahead right now; they have scored 3 goals and conceded just 1. Mumbai have scored 2 and conceded 4. So it will all come down to the scoreline in the match between Mumbai and Lajong.

If Mumbai beat Lajong 1-0, Shillong and Aizawl survive. If Mumbai win 2-0, then all the teams end up conceding as many goals as they have scored, and Aizawl and Mumbai will be safe due to scoring more goals; Shillong will go down. If Mumbai win by a larger margin that will relegate Lajong too; but if the match turns out to be a goalfest and Mumbai score at least 4 goals while winning by 2 goals or less, then Mumbai and Lajong will be safe; Aizawl will go down.

All this speculation, of course, hinges on one big factor: Aizawl will have to beat Shivajians on Saturday. Anything less than that and Lajong immediately gain immunity from relegation. And Mumbai FC will be required to pick up 1 or 2 points from their last 2 games, depending on whether Aizawl lose or draw. Which is not the biggest ask because Mumbai have both their remaining games at home, and Khalid Jamil is known for grinding out draws at Cooperage.

So, in conclusion, there are myriads of possibilities open still when it comes to the relegation battle. And all of this will unfold over the last 2 matchweeks of the season. We saw a similar mad rush to avoid relegation last season as well, and as many as 5 clubs went into the last matchday with the threat of going down hanging over their heads. This time, the fight may get resolved before the last day, and only 3 clubs are in the fray. But it can be said that the stakes this time are much higher. 

Because Mumbai FC, Shillong Lajong and Aizawl FC are all clubs who have played a significant role in Indian football. Mumbai FC are the sole representative from a major city and a club who are finally expanding their fanbase after returning to their original home ground following years of banishment. Shillong Lajong have been a major club in the top division for many years now and boast of a vibrant, beautiful fanbase in the capital of Meghalaya. And Aizawl FC, who made history by becoming the first club from Mizoram - one of the most important footballing states in the country - to play in the top division, boast of a dynamic playing style and a bunch of talented youngsters, who if given a chance to keep playing in the top division can have a bright future in Indian football. And not to mention they have a crazy fanbase who fill their stadium and the hills around it to watch their matches. Losing out on that significant chunk of fans would be a major loss for I-League and Indian football on general.

So this season, which may turn out to be the second-last edition of I-League as we know it, has brought us to a situation where no matter who gets relegated, Indian football loses big time.