FIFA rankings -- GOLDEN OPPORTUNITY for India to win favourable seeding in Asian Cup 2019 (UPDATED)

THE UPCOMING DEAD RUBBER GAME between Kyrgyzstan and India has suddenly become a hell lot more intersting, thanks to the current scenario in the FIFA rankings.

In the latest rankings released by FIFA, India have climbed to the 99th place, with 339 ranking points to their name. While breaking back into the top 100 in the world is significant, the implications it brings are nothing compared to India's comparative position in Asia.

To be particular, this is about the seeding for the upcoming Asian Cup 2019.

Now, India have already qualified for the tournament. But on 27th April 2018, the draw of slots for the competition will take place, where the 24 participants will be placed into 4 pots of 6 each according to their FIFA rankings. One team from each pot will go into a group. So, if you make it into a pot with higher ranked teams, you get more teams in your group who are ranked lower than you. And for a team like India which has not made it past the group stages of Asian Cup for decades, getting into a higher pot can make the difference between their own definition success and failure.

Currently, India are ranked 13th in Asia. Immediately above the Blue Tigers are Lebanon (390 points), and Iraq (406 points).

Now, the 12th spot in Asia is especially significant because the teams ranked 7th to 12th will go into Pot 2 in the seeding and have two lower ranked teams in their group, while teams placed 13th to 18th will go into Pot 3 with two higher and just one lower ranked team in their group.

So, if somehow India can amass more ranking points than Lebanon and/or Iraq, they can get into the coveted Pot 2 and stand a legitimate chance to get into the AFC Asian Cup knockouts.

And this is where the match against Kyrgyzstan, scheduled for March 27th, comes in. If India manage to win that - a continental qualifier away from home - it will be a major boost for them. By 12th April, when the next rankings come out, they will have no less than 422 points to their name.

And what of Lebanon and Iraq? Well, Lebanon are playing Malaysia at home in a continental qualifier match on March 27th. If they win, they will get to 404. That's lower than India's possible ranking points. And Iraq are not even playing any game, which will mean that next month they will have 409 ranking points.

This means that fate has presented India a golden opportunity to pass both these countries in the FIFA rankings and claim a place in the Pot 2 of Asian Cup, provided they beat Kyrgyzstan on the 27th.

But what of countries immediately below India? Can they win their way and de-throne India from the top 12 ranked countries in Asia? Well, directly below India are Qatar with 332 points and they are not playing any games, they'll stay at 332. Below them are Oman with 331. If they beat Palestine at home on 27th March in the Asian Cup Qualifiers they will go up to 383, well below India's possible points. So there's no threat of a team coming from behind and de-throning India as long as the Blue Tigers win their own game.

Now, being among the top 12 ranked countries in Asia does not mean we actually are that good on the pitch. Being ranked above countries like Oman, Iraq, Qatar, North Korea etc is a result of AIFF carefully scheduling India's matches to suit our ranking needs and those other countries not keeping up to speed. But being among the higher ranked teams does give you a slight advantage in the draw, so India should take it with both hands... or feet.

Which means that when the Indian team travels to Kyrgyzstan later this month they will not be playing an insignificant match, although they have already qualified for the main tournament. A victory or defeat in Bishkek can change everything for India come January 2019. With the likes of Sunil Chhetri and Eugeneson Lyngdoh unavailable for the match, Constantine's boys will have a tough task in their hands; but the potential rewards are worth the effort.

UPDATE: The FIFA Council has lifted a ban from Iraq, after the publication of this article. This has allowed Iraq to schedule a friendly tournament at home where Syria and Qatar are featuring as well. Each team will play each other once, making for two matches each within the current international window. The competition will run from 22nd to 27th March and each match will be regarded as a standalone international friendly from the ranking perspective.

Thankfully, this tournament does not threaten India's ranking goals as long as we beat Kyrgyzstan. Syria are already above us in the rankings and if they win their two matches it will stay that way. If Iraq win both their matches, they will get a boost and gather 417 ranking points, which will still be below India's 422. If Qatar gather two wins, they will go up to 352, which again is far below India's possible points.

So, the Blue Tigers have their job cut out. Even with ranking rivals playing matches to gather more points, a victory in Bishkek still guarantees them a place in the Pot 2 of the Asian Cup.

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