#ATKvMUM Preview + Predictions: A stare-off between two lethal attacks but advantage Mumbai

THE GLOVES ARE off and so are the bets. 

Tonight will see a grand beginning of the business end of ISL 2016. The opening match first leg of the semi-finals will see Atletico de Kolkata host Mumbai City.

It's somewhat poetic that these four teams should meet each other. Both Atletico de Kolkata and Mumbai City have moved to new home grounds this year; smaller ones but both appear to suit them better in terms of the number of fans they have.

And the teams are just about as well matched as their stadiums. Atletico de Kolkata and Mumbai City played out two close games in the league stage; one resulting in a draw and the other in a 0-1 win for Mumbai.

These being the first legs, the battle is likely to be a bit more restrained. Tonight's game likely to see Jose Molina double down on defensive duties to diffuse the devastating dredger-like attacking line up that Mumbai City sport. Heavily marking Sunil Chhetri and trying to isolate Diego Forlan from the midfield supply line is something all teams have done and he will do it too. But there are going to be certain new elements that ATK will have to deal with.

Defensive Condundrums

Firstly, when ATK and Mumbai played in the league stage, Sunil Chhetri was away playing for Bengaluru FC. And so was goalkeeper Amrinder Singh. When these teams first went head to head in ISL 2016 Mumbai were using Brazilian keeper Roberto Tigaro which meant one less foreigner for ATK to deal with. Next time they did have an Indian keeper in Albino Gomes and though ATK did have the containment plan for Cafu and Vadocz and everyone down to the T, and they kept Forlan quiet for most of the time. But Sony Norde found his way to get that one cross to the man up front and that was enough. Molina's plan almost worked twice, but ultimately failed.

And here's where it gets more complicated for ATK. Mumbai will now have Sunil Chhetri in as the second striker. Or the target man. Either way, he and Forlan keep changing positions so it all becomes fluid during the game. Now, although Sunil has not been able to score in ISl so far and is arguably having a hard time with his finishing, what he does in that float-behind-the-striker role is drawing markers and defenders. This leaves major openings for others. A run from the wing, and a large gap between Forlan and Sunil is a big headache for any defence; it's pretty hard to cover both of them in that situation without leaving the door open for an attacking medio like Vadocz or Defederico to rush into space. So it's a riddle that Molina will need to solve, and it may involve some physical gameplay from the likes of Arnab Mondal, Tiri and Borja Fernandes. 

But a similar problem may also come to haunt Guimaraes. ATK have two dangerous wingers in Sameehg Doutie and Abinash Ruidas, some threatening finishers like Helder Postiga (provided he's fit tonight) and Iain Hume. You try to contain these dangerous attackers and you open up space for a Sameehg Doutie to sting. But the amount of power this attack packs is considerably less than the Mumbai City offence. And the likes of Aibor, Goian and Gerson have dealt with this bunch before. So unlike the ATK defenders who will have a puzzle to solve tonight, Mumbai defenders only need to do their job, harder than they have ever done in this tournament. And it will turn out to be fine. 

Unless, Molina does the opposite of containment and goes full thrust forward, knowing that unless ATK go into the second leg with an advantage they are not likely to make it into the final.

Then it becomes an end-to-end game with wings playing a major role. And here. ATK might just have an upper hand; Mumbai City's right wing is not as strong so the ATK defenders can be ever-so-slightly attentive to the left.

Predicted Result

But going by an overall sense of the two teams, and the overarching superiority that Mumbai City have displayed over the league stage, one has to give the visitors an upper hand tonight. It's likely to be a 1 goal win for them which still leaves the door wide open for a second round comeback for ATK since away goals don't carry any advantage in ISL. 

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